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Amnesty Still Uncertain

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On December 15, 2009 Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) introduced an immigration bill called the Comprehensive Immigration Reform for America's Security and Prosperity Act of 2009 (CIR ASAP).  Read the text of the 644 page bill here.  Will immigration reform pass, or will Democrats lose the House and Senate trying to push this bill through?

Gutierrez claims to have bargained his "yes" vote on the health care bill in exchange for a renewed focus on expanded immigration benefits promised by the Obama administration.  "Thursday afternoon we saw the blueprint that was issued by Graham and Schumer," Gutierrez said. "The White House embraced it... there are other steps that are being taken... I think we've got the president's attention again."

While HR 4321 offers important human rights protections and some reasonable changes in legal procedures, it reaches far in extending benefits to millions of foreign nationals who entered the United States illegally.  It is unclear how average Americans will react to the bill's provisions and we expect that neither Democrats, nor Republicans have a clear idea of how voters will react to significant changes to the immigration laws.

Will Amnesty Efforts Move Forward?

Both parties are placing big bets on how Americans will react to a new amnesty.  While most Americans have acknowledged in polls that "something" has to be done to accommodate aliens who entered illegally and who are already here, responses to polls appear to be heavily influenced by how the questions and responses are worded.

Many factors will influence voter perception.  The large population of Latinos in the United States may disproportionately have friends or relatives whose parents were mistreated, threatened, or otherwise lived in fear despite otherwise being a neighbor, coworker, taxpayer, father, or mother.  Others may have waited more than a decade outside of the United States to earn US residence and resent that those who broke the law will not have to wait at all.  The high US unemployment rate will certainly influence voters as they think about whether handing work authorization to as many as 12 million people will improve, or weaken job prospects for Americans.  To this end both sides in the debate have sought the counsel of economists to bolster their positions and both sides seem to have some cogent economic arguments.  On its face, the departure of 12 million people from the United States would probably have far reaching effects on GDP, unemployment, rents, home prices, and many other areas.  One thing is certain, only one party can be correct in its expectation of how voters will react.  We'll have to wait until November to see how that plays out.

Summary of the Bill

HR 4321 proposes important steps to protect immigration detainees, and especially children, from abuse, withholding of medical care, sexual abuse and other acts that news reports over the past two years indicated are more widespread than earlier believed.  The bill also,
Allows an immigration judge to decline to remove the parents of US citizen children when it is in the child's interest (now the hardship must be exceptional and extremely unusual, a very difficult standard to meet)

  • Provides new audit authority for L-1 employers and encourages additional H-1B enforcement measures
  • Provides temporary status and work authorization to foreign nationals who entered the United States illegally and who are still here
  • Allows the those holding the temporary status to apply for permanent residence after six years providing that all visa backlogs have been cleared
  • Provides additional funds and other enhancements for border security

 

Comments (1)

Sean Olender's picture
Sean Olender- Apr 10, 2010 02:45 AM Reply
<p>We invite you to comment on the important issue of amnesty and immigration reform.&nbsp; We will soon open a forum on this issue and conduct visitor polls.&nbsp; There are strong arguments and data supporting both sides of the issue.&nbsp; The powerful effect that these proposals will have on the lives of millions of Americans and millions of foreign nationals living illegally in the United States is profound and deserves our serious thought.</p><p>We ask that you keep the discussion civil.&nbsp; We believe in the First Amendment and we do not edit comments based on political views.&nbsp; However, we will remove comments containing profanity, personal attacks, as well as inappropriate, or irrelevant comments.</p>
 
 

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